I just finished Coach Kelley's DVD from American Football Monthly and here are some notes I took while watching the DVD.
By not punting you are increasing your opportunity for a first down.
The amount of yardage you need on each play changes when you adopt this philosophy
3.3 yards for 3 downs
2.5 yards for 4 downs
Punting-Teams spend an inordinate amount of time not turning the ball over. Then why would you just give the other team the ball.
How you acquire the ball changes your percentage of scoring.
Via Kick off on own 20/30 yard line teams score about 17% of time
Via fumble/interception teams score 34% of time from same spot on field
If you have ball on your own five and choose to punt.
The average net punt is 32 yards
Therefore, you are still giving your opponent a 77% chance of scoring
If you go for it turn the ball over on downs you are giving the opponent a 92% chance of scoring
His contention is that a decrease of 15% is not worth punting the ball
Additionally, they have found out that when they go for it on 4th down and convert their team scores on 76% of the drives.
Not making first downs is an offensive failure
Benefits
Play calling changes-You can run the ball on 3rd and 8 to put the offense in a favorable 4th down position.
Defense has to change the way they call the game
More practice time for other things
Offense is on field longer therefore fatiguing the defense
Additional Lnks
http://www.bloggersodear.com/2012/11/1/3582320/its-4th-down-what-should-we-do-now
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/19/sports/football/calculating-footballs-risk-of-not-punting-on-fourth-down.html
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